Good morning. Max Adams in for Phil Rosen today. At least one big firm has put a number on how much further stocks have to fall before they hit the bottom. The bad news is that the odds of a recession have doubled. The good news is that an end to this sell-off might be in sight.
By the way, one of our editors, Hallam Bullock, stopped by The Refresh from Insider to talk about inflation in Europe. Listen here.
Now let's get started.
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1. The S&P 500 will fall another 10% before the sell-off bottoms out. The investment chief at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management said the odds of two consecutive quarters of negative growth doubled after the Fed's super-sized rate hike this month, and there's another 5%-10% lower to go for stocks.
That would be on top of the already 20% slide in the S&P 500, which has put the market on track for the worst first half of the year since 1970. Morgan Stanley's Lisa Shalett said that stocks have further to fall because investors still aren't pricing in the Fed's new hawkishness.
There is hope, though, for a second half rally. According to analysts at Ned Davis Research, there are five things that need to line up in order for stocks to come back in the latter part of this year.
These include a pullback in inflation, avoiding a recession, and a favorable result for the market in the upcoming midterm elections — check out what else investors need to happen here.
"Extremely weak first halves are almost always followed by strong second halves," NDR's Ed Clissold said. "Bear markets do not just end on their own. Macro factors turn in the market's favor."
In other news:
2. US stock futures fell early Thursday, after Fed Chair Jerome Powell's tough talk on inflation stoked recession fears. Meanwhile, bitcoin was also down and was last seen trading around the $19,000 level. Here are the latest market moves.
3. On the docket: Constellation Brands, Walgreens Boots Alliance, Micron Technology all reporting. Plus, look out for the unemployment insurance weekly claims report, expected from the US Department of Labor at 7:30 am ET.
4. Housing demand is softening in these cities. According to Zillow, some markets that were previously considered overvalued are cooling off. Here are the eight housing markets that are beginning to see a slowdown.
5. Oil is going to $200 a barrel, according to one analyst. That's because the G7's plan to cap the price of Russian crude is a "recipe for disaster." Read what SEB analyst Bjarne Schieldrop had to say about world leaders' latest idea to hurt Russia's oil trade.
6. Nio stock fell on Wednesday after a short seller alleged "accounting games". Grizzly Bear Research said the Chinese EV maker and Tesla rival was running an "audacious scheme" to inflate its financials. Nio responded, saying the claims were without merit.
7. Crypto hedge fund Three Arrows Capital has been ordered to liquidate by a British Virgin Islands court. As per The Wall Street Journal, Nichol Yeo, a partner at law firm Solitaire LLP, said Three Arrows Capital is seeking legal advice after creditors sued the crypto hedge fund for failure to repay debts. Here's the latest.
8. The CEO of Binance.US told Insider what he thinks the TerraUSD debacle means for the wider crypto space. Brian Shroder lays out what he thinks comes next after the high-profile collapse — and which two stablecoins he feels most confident about.
9. The investment chief at a $1.1 billion firm says its time for investors to get aggressive. Nancy Tengler says the current bear market is a "once-in-a-generation entry point". See the list of 15 stocks she's buying right now.
10. Should you buy a house right now? Take our quiz. The housing market has shifted in a big way, and amid uncertainty around mortgage rates and home prices, Insider has put together a quiz to help prospective home buyers decide whether now is the right time. Check it out here.
Keep up with the latest markets news throughout your day by checking out The Refresh from Insider, a dynamic audio news brief from the Insider newsroom. Listen here.
Curated by Max Adams in New York. (Feedback or tips? Email [email protected])
Edited by Hallam Bullock (@hallam_bullock) in London.